On 16th May 2014, what was only till then merely writing on the wall became a humiliating reality. The INC slumped to its most crushing defeat ever in its century old history and being in the electioneering fray since 1952. Out of the total 542 seats of the Indian Parliament, the INC got 44, its ally the NCP has 4. The Opposition the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) and its allies have secured 48% vote share and a total seat tally of 336 seats, while the BJP on its own secured a simple majority by winning 282 seats from the required 272 numeric.
The numbers tell their own story but the manner in which they lost is an epic on its own. The opposition organized its election juggernaut under the leadership of Narendra Modi ( now the Prime Minister in waiting ) was a study in election management. A stiffer reply was required to the military style, American Presidential campaign approach of the BJP which was extremely clear on
• Making Development & good Governance as the primary issues.
• Corruption as an issue, the scandal tainted Congress already was a ready-made target and the BJP never let the voter forget till the voting day.
• A State wise focus and customization of the sales pitch by the BJP. In UP under the mentor-ship of Amit Shah they played the caste card selectively keeping Modi away from it, Modi could then attack the Mamta Government in Kolkata on the Bangladeshi illegal immigrant issue, Kashmir and article 370 and its relevance for today, Andhra Pradesh it tied with TDP and took the moral high ground in the split state, and the BJP ruled states of Goa, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh & MP delivered totally. The screws were tightened in Maharashtra driving the NCP & INC alliance up the wall on two main issues of corruption and farmer suicides. It was spectacular in its execution. Every single point in the campaign hit the bull’s eye.
• The strategic use of the new media namely taking the campaign on Television and Social Media given that 80 million of voter base was going to be added. The “first time voter”, the youth constituted about 10%of the and total voterbase and additionally about 3-5% of the young and professionals, all of them who loudly communicate here. They could see only Modi and his campaign plugs creating a loud sound byte that resonated and multiplied. Modi the messiah, the salvation the deliverer. It was very clever.
Where did the Congress Fail?
• Arrogance and Hubris of the leadership. Instead of taking the lead and putting forth the good work done and there has been work, the Congress failed to communicate.
• Instead of looking at media and its own proper marketing, they took their own Brand value and the Voters acceptance for granted.
• One could confidently make a claim that the INC was clueless about what was happening on the ground and entrusted their leadership into the hands of a callow perpetual debutante, Rahul Gandhi, who had already cost them UP in the state assembly poll in 2012. This was by far their biggest mistake. Nothing can be worse to a Party than having a loser for a leader, he doesn't charge up the rank and file; he has no perspective or clarity of thought and hence does not know what’s relevant or the need of the hour. Projecting him against a seasoned guy only added to the luster on Modi.
• Corruption Scandals and their taint could not be effectively defended or washed off. Manmohan Singh’s haplessness especially in his second tenure came out even more starkly. Narsimha Rao, Singh’s one time boss also was not a communicative man as far as the media goes, but he was a leader and on that front there were no doubts. It was a thought leadership coupled with a politically savvy brain, there was none on exhibit here.
There would be innumerable reasons attributed for why one lost and the other won. Suffice it to say the nation gave them a chance over two terms now and were clearly not happy with them. The Congress paid for it and how.
The moot question is Modi’s clarion call on “Congress Mukt Bharat”.
Is that a possibility? Is there anything that the Congress is doing to prevent it? Does India need the Congress at all?
Introspection Congress Style :
The INC went into a huddle as every party goes into when they lose. Then they come out with spectacularly profound words for the media when questioned, sample some here...
a) We clearly need to introspect on why this happened. (Vapid)
b) We have done good work but failed to communicate it to the people (Pure brazenness)
c) We only missed out on seats but do also look at our vote share (Even more brazenness)
d) The responsibility is collective and the Rahul –Sonia Gandhi leadership can alone really not be blamed.(Denial)
e) They still are our leaders.(Delusion, Fait Accompli ??)
Did all of these things happen yesterday? Yes they did? Did Congress really appear contrite, hurt or humiliated enough to come out fighting? From yesterday’s meeting it certainly did not give that impression? Is the same lack luster leadership going to continue and the only spice that the Congress may add in the name of change would be to add Priyanka Gandhi-Wadra’s name to rally around? She looks like her grandmother but does she have the charisma, political acumen, ruthless single mindedness and gravitas to effect the turnaround that Indira managed in 1980 ? With her few appearances in Amethi looks seriously doubtful plus she comes with her own baggage called Robert Wadra. Her own chances of winning an election with him around are bleak let alone springboard the turnaround.
A functioning democracy, especially when it has neighbors of friendly (sic) disposition like the ones we are saddled with ( Pakistan, China, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka ) & with whom or on whose soil we have engaged in actual wars albeit carried out military action in the distant and near past, needs a very strong leadership to counter them and a strong opposition to maintain the balance.
This is not only applicable for security but for other issues as well. Majoritarian polity can have a tendency to fly off the handle unfettered & unchecked. This is where a constructive strong opposition plays a role. A rational voice of opposition ensures policies and bills that get presented, debated, to later become acts or law are thoroughly examined on all sides for probity, relevance and utility. Today with the Congress decimated the same roles need/can be performed by regional parties coming together. We do have three major state players in Mamta Bannerjee, Jayalalitha & Navin Patnaik who have kept the in-form Modi from totally breaching their bastions. The other option which could have been AAP has been rendered irrelevant with just 4 seats and that too from a single state. AAP needs to go down its own introspection route.
For the Democracy of India an engaging opposition is needed sure. but there is no compulsion on the part of the political ethos that this should have to only be the Congress. It can be the Congress or any other party with their mandate.
Mahatma Gandhi in 1947 had suggested that now that the country had won its freedom, the Congress can be disbanded, its utility and relevance is finished. The leaders then disagreed. Should the Congress persist in the blithe introspection style it is exhibiting so far without undergoing real metamorphosis, It faces immediate disarray and certain extinction where "disbandment" as the Mahatma had suggested in 1947 would not even be required. It would implode all on its own.